── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Mariano Navone a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mariano Navone
Pablo Carreno Busta
53%47%
Hard: 37% / 63%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 38% / 62%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mariano Navone
33th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Mariano Navone
96th · elite
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#50
model rank
#59
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ESP
178cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mariano Navone■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–1
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | R128 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 4-6 7-5 6-3 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R128 | Mariano Navone | 5-7 6-1 6-3 6-0 |