── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Luca Van Assche
Pablo Carreno Busta
46%54%
Hard: 44% / 56%
Clay: 51% / 49%
Grass: 43% / 57%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Luca Van Assche
17th · poor
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Luca Van Assche
86th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#68
model rank
#59
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
ESP
178cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Luca Van Assche■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Estoril | Clay | R16 | Luca Van Assche | 6-3 4-6 6-2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Olbia CH | Hard | F | Luca Van Assche | 7-6(5) 6-7(1) 6-2 |