── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ben Shelton
Pablo Carreno Busta
68%32%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ben Shelton
98th · elite
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Ben Shelton
20th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#18
model rank
#56
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ben Shelton■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Ben Shelton | 6-4 6-2 6-4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Ben Shelton | 6-3 6-3 6-7(4) 6-4 |